Here’s looking at you, BJP | Opinion News, The Indian Express

Here’s looking at you, BJP | Opinion News, The Indian Express

Written by Suhas Palshikar |Published: December 15, 2018 12:22:58 am

The writer taught political science at Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, and is chief editor of 'Studies in Indian Politics'.

Here’s looking at you, BJP

Assembly outcomes won’t bring transformations. But they may just bring BJP narrative down to earth.

As such, the story of this round of elections boils down to the sudden crisis faced by the BJP. With Lok Sabha elections only months away, this setback will haunt the party in the run-up. (File)

Results of the recently held assembly elections — particularly in the key states of Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan — have suddenly altered the political barometer. Of course, parties draw conflicting conclusions from the same outcomes. Just as opponents of the BJP see this round as the beginning of the countdown for the BJP’s fall, the BJP is straining every nerve to argue that state elections have nothing to do with the national outcome — or even the national mood.

Sure enough, in two of the three BJP-ruled states the party was in power for too long and the law of change was bound to catch up with it sooner or later. Besides, vote shares, seat difference in MP and margins of victory, all show the thinness of the “victory” of the Congress in Rajasthan and MP. Add to this the Congress’ inability to retain Mizoram (or even remain a strong contender) and failure to dent the TRS in Telangana and the limitations of the Congress appear stark. So, there is ground to doubt if the Congress “won” but the BJP’s defeat is an undeniable reality.

As such, the story of this round of elections boils down to the sudden crisis faced by the BJP. With Lok Sabha elections only months away, this setback will haunt the party in the run-up.

One reason for this is the number of seats it may now lose from these states where it won as many as 62 last time. Even if it loses half of these, the dream of returning to power would have receded. But it is not merely the mechanical calculation of loss of seats in these states; it is also about image and optics — weapons the party relies heavily on. Since Gujarat, the invincibility of the party has been under a cloud. Now these defeats will send a message across the country that the BJP, too, is subject to electoral ups and downs.