The most off-track of them all | The Indian Express

The most off-track of them all | The Indian Express

Written by Surjit S Bhalla |Updated: June 22, 2019 5:25:59 am

The writer is Contributing Editor at The Indian Express, and Consulting Editor at Network 18

The most off-track of them all

Arvind Subramanian’s method of estimating GDP suggests that Germany over-estimates and Brazil under-estimates it the most. India is only a mild outlier.

Every day there is an announcement of concern and the admission that the economy is in trouble. (Illustration: C R Sasikumar)

Recent measured GDP statistics for India (and the world) suggest trouble. No misestimation here. Indian GDP growth has declined from the 8.2 per cent recorded in 2018 Q2 to 5.8 per cent in 2019Q1 — one of the largest three-quarter declines in the last 15 years — and if fiscal years 2009, 2010 and 2012 are excluded, it is the third-worst decline.