The economy is in a coma; low growth may have a bearing on poll outcomes

Quarterly GDP growth has set a record. It’s at a six quarter low. Our woes are compounded by the disaster in agriculture. Growth in 2018/19 is sharply lower at 2.7 per cent.

india gdp, economy, indian economy, elections 2019 — The economy is in a coma. Quarterly GDP growth has set a record. It’s at a six quarter low.

It’s too much to expect any major initiatives aimed at resolving serious problems, before June. When the election commissioners were on the move — in scenic Northeast and Kashmir, us mere mortals were biting our nails, waiting for the election dates to be announced. Now that the dates have been announced, the government has run out of next generation projects to announce.

This really does not mean that serious non-Pakistan problems should be totally ignored. At least, business-as-usual decisions could be taken and carried on with the polling fanfare on the side.

The economy is in a coma. Quarterly GDP growth has set a record. It’s at a six quarter low. Now we said so, and it’s well known, given the lags, that seeds of low growth are planted six months earlier. So this writer’s forecasts then were kosher, and are coming home now, but that doesn’t soften the suffering. At least an attempt can be made to raise investment. The corporate sector will definitely respond, unlike the inaction of investment to the interest rate cut. Incidentally, the reversal of former Reserve Bank governor Urjit Patel’s sound interest rate policy meant that the one bright spot, namely inflow of funds, also reversed showing that the government persons on the monetary policy committee (MPC) had caused the damage, which deputy governor Viral Acharya tried to unsuccessfully stop. He seemed not to have the ear of the new central bank governor and was voted out.

Money spent now would add on an element of sincerity to the photo ops of project inaugurals because it could be announced that work is starting and “X” amount is available. Having done scarcity relief, a collector can get going straight away.