Some numbers behind the election result

It's the change, not the economy, stupid.

Marcus Roberts | Nov 13 2016 | comment

We are still in the immediate aftermath of the US Presidential Elections, a suprise upset result that has resulted in millions of words being written and many surveys, postmortems, predictions and howls of anguish and triumph being unleashed. So here's one more to that pile.

As I mentioned in my last blogpost before the election, I thought that, if Trump won, it was because his supporters were more enthusued than Clinton's were and were more likely to get out to vote than her's were. And it seems as if that was, in part, what happened last week – the number of Trump's votes was about the same as Romney's four years ago, while Clinton's total was well down from Obama's in 2012.

To add some further intrigue, let's pick over some of these surprises from the election carcass cooked up by the Washington Post. (NB: these surprises are all taken from the election day exit polls and therefore whether they can be relied upon is another matter!)

Trump had a better margin over his rival among white voters (he beat Clinton by 21 points) than either Reagan or Romney did (both managed to win by 20).
Despite all the predictions that Trump would do very badly with women, Clinton only beat him by 12 among women voters, Obama beat Romney by 11 with women four years ago.
As I mentioned last week, Trump did better with Hispanic voters than Romney did four years ago (29 vs 27 per cent). Once again, things that the media and pundits thinks will turn off parts of the electorate were obviously not such big deals.
Trump did better with white evangelical voters than Romney did in 2012 (both men won this group convincingly, taking 81 per cent and 78 per cent respectively).
52 per cent of voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the country. Clinton won these voters by ten points.
Nearly 40 per cent of voters thought that the most desirable candidate quality was one who “can bring needed change”. Trump, not surprisingly, won this group 83-14.
Nearly half of the electorate thought that Obamacare “went too far” and Trump won this group 83-13. The announcement a couple of weeks before the election of average premium rises of 25 per cent would have helped Trump more than many are realising I think.
Despite winning the election, the electorate has a low opinion of Trump. Only 38 per cent have a favourable opinion of him and only 35 per cent said he has the “temperament to serve effectively as President”!
Most tellingly is the fact that two-thirds of voters feel that things were “seriously off on the wrong track”. Trump took 69 per cent of this group. That I think explains his success and is a bit of an indictment on the Obama legacy.

Now look what he's done! Donald Trump gets elected in the US and six days later New Zealand has a magnitude 7.5 earthquake -- actually two quakes -- killing two people. Correlation is not causation, but it must be tempting for some journalists to blame the new American president for our latest misfortune. Or was it the super moon? Tonight, the moon is at its closest point to the Earth in 68 years. Unfortunately there is a lot of cloud around in this part of the world so we are not seeing it yet. That's probably Trump's fault too.

Well, as far as MercatorNet is concerned, it is time to focus on the things President Trump should do rather than on the awful things he has done or might do. He needs lots of good ideas, and one of them is outlined by Elysse ElHage. Building a healthy marriage culture is not a task for which Mr Trump is uniquely qualified. However, we can all learn from our mistakes. We can also learn from the massive amount of data that Ms ElHage indicates in her article, showing that strong families are part of the story of making America great again. Are you paying attention Mr Trump?

Carolyn Moynihan
Deputy Editor,
MERCATORNET

Mr President: A healthy marriage culture is vital to America’s success

By Alysse ElHage

Bridging the marriage divide is an important part of efforts to boost economic mobility.
Read the full article

‘Mum and dad’ views disqualify foster couple for adoption

By Christian Concern

Told the children were destined for a gay couple, their reaction was ‘concerning’.
Read the full article

Arrival

By Laura Cotta Ramosino

Denis Villeneuve’s latest sci-fi effort is intellectually and emotionally satisfying.
Read the full article

Some numbers behind the election result

By Marcus Roberts

It's the change, not the economy, stupid.
Read the full article

Blind spot on the family

By Michael Cook

The outcome of the US election makes painfully obvious the shortcomings of the media
Read the full article

Liberal feminist bullying sparked the Trump backlash

By Laura Perrins

I'm not hot on Trump, but a defeat for 1 percent feminism is overdue.
Read the full article

Is Trump the new Constantine?

By Blaise Joseph

Eight months ago, Blaise Joseph cast Trump as a new Constantine, the pagan emperor who set Christianity free. Here is his far-sighted article.
Read the full article