The author is a former journalist and UNDP Senior Adviser in Asia Pacificl who is presently a writer based out of Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram.
Why lone rangers Kamal Haasan and Dhinakaran are the side story in Tamil Nadu
While the main story is about alliances and how their synergies amplify chances of electoral success, there’s a side story too: It’s about two emerging and charismatic leaders being stranded. This story is about Kamal Haasan and TTV Dhinakaran. Both of them will be contesting alone.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi about to make yet another visit to Tamil Nadu where he would inaugurate infrastructure projects worth a few thousand crore rupees, the state seems to have entered the active campaign phase for the 2019 elections. Modi thinks his party would register a “historic win” in the state and one of the reasons he cited is its “strong alliance” with AIADMK and others.
Modi’s trust on alliances is not misplaced because right now what matters the most is optimisation of electoral resources, including vote shares. The main fronts led by the AIADMK and the DMK are betting on vote-share arithmetic that incidentally folds in itself caste and communal equations. The AIADMK has tied up with the Vanniyar dominated PMK and the BJP and is hopeful of bringing in actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK and a less influential Puthiya Thamilagam. Reportedly Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) too would join.
Also Read: PM Modi in Tamil Nadu
On the other side, the DMK has Congress, CPI, CPM, VCK, MDMK and IUML. And the front is also hopeful about roping in DMDK. Reportedly, DMDK is more inclined to join the DMK-Congress front than AIADMK-BJP.
While the main story is about alliances and how their synergies amplify chances of electoral success, there’s a side story too: It’s about two emerging and charismatic leaders being stranded. They are in neither of the camps and their parties are at risk of spreading too thin if they are to contest across the state. This story is about Kamal Haasan and TTV Dhinakaran. Both of them will be contesting alone.
It’s not clear if Kamal’s going it alone is purely out of choice or because of circumstances. A few months ago he had said that he was open to aligning with “like-minded” parties. The Congress was interested in him and he had even met Rahul Gandhi, but reportedly the DMK was circumspect. Even Kamal had said earlier that he wouldn’t tie up with either the DMK or the AIADMK. On his part, he was open to the Congress without the DMK, which was politically meaningless.
In the case of Dhinakaran, who many political observers think has considerable support of the traditional AIADMK-voters, has a different problem. He can’t go to AIADMK because that’s his mothership which he wants to control sooner than later and the DMK has to be his main rival. Therefore, Dhinakaran will do better if he cannibalises the AIADMK because that will destabilise its present leadership and help him wean away its cadres. Dinakaran’s lone ranger campaign is aimed at weakening the AIADMK. It will certainly help the DMK-Congress front.
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