A promissory note

Opposition’s Common Minimum Programme needs honesty, realistic implementation, not bravado.

Opposition leaders at NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s house in New Delhi on Wednesday evening. ANI

Something important happened at Sharad Pawar’s residence last week. Not that the Opposition leaders met again — there have been plenty of these recently. But, there was talk of a Common Minimum Programme (CMP) — something a lot of citizens, particularly those disillusioned with the performance of the current NDA government, have been waiting for. A vision that all these various state parties, who are vying to present an alternative to the electorate, can agree and sign-off on. On this may hinge the nation’s choice of plumping for a federal style coalition government or handing Narendra Modi another term to prove himself.

A lot of voters believe, correctly, that Modi is betraying tell-tale signs of desperation. The recent reservation for economically weaker sections and the handouts in the “interim” budget all point to that. Desperation is usually punished by voters. Opposition parties have to be careful not to fall into this desperation trap themselves. In that, Rahul Gandhi’s recent reckless announcements about farm loan waivers and basic income schemes should be viewed with caution. It can easily be interpreted as a race to the bottom. What voters need is a calm, well-thought out programme which is less a sheet full of unattainable promises, like they witnessed in 2014, and more of an action plan meant to address the country’s deep structural faultlines. We don’t need another promise of “acche din” but a layout of the road that can get us somewhere close. The Common Minimum Programme needs honesty, not bravado.

The vision plan has to start with jobs, as this has been Modi’s biggest failure. The CMP should avoid the mistake of putting out an annual job target like Modi’s 20 million jobs a year, which he fell woefully short of. Rather, the nation needs a plan. As an example, the CMP could point to the pathetic 1.6 per cent growth in exports over the NDA’s term and make a promise to focus on creating a manufacturing base for exports which can potentially create millions of jobs, as witnessed in other Asian economies like Bangladesh and Vietnam. Like we have a fiscal responsibility plan which pressurises the government to stick to deficit targets, the CMP can impose a target of bringing down unemployment from the current four-decade high of 6.1 per cent to 3 per cent during its tenure.

Intrinsically linked to the vision on job creation, is an overhaul of India’s education system, which has to find place in the CMP. Our education system, primary or graduate level, is not producing employable workers and that is at the root of the jobs crisis. The CMP could announce the setting up of an education reform task force, helmed by credible technocrats with a firm implementation deadline. Budget outlays for education need to be augmented significantly.

A comprehensive farm sector policy should be the other pillar of any CMP. And this cannot hinge on promises of farm loan waivers, however politically expedient they may be. India’s problem of falling farm prices and yields is structural and has been left unaddressed during the Modi tenure. The CMP can hold out a promise of “temporary” income support relief but introduce a longer-term plan to address the problem. Else it would be walking into the same trap that the NDA fell into. And if the opposition parties have set their hearts on a Universal Basic Income plan, then the CMP must include a promise to have such a plan vetted by the best economic minds on the subject before implementation. This is too important a subject to be left to the whims of politicians and bureaucrats.

The CMP also needs to promise a comprehensive relook at our reservation policy. Without resorting to a reckless “everyone will be included” kind of promise, a progressive, equitable and inclusive reservation policy should feature prominently in the list of objectives. In addressing all this, the Opposition should not forget to dispel any notion that corporate India will get the wrong end of the stick — that will be a colossal mistake. In an attempt to prove that it isn’t a “suit boot ki sarkar”, the Opposition has to be careful not to go to the other extreme. A word of assurance in the CMP about a stable tax regime and fiscal rectitude will allay such fears.