Where a no-deal Brexit would hurt Europe the most

The regions most exposed to a no-deal Brexit would experience issues like disruptions in trade, costly tariffs, fragmented supply chains and restrictions on services.

A truck crosses a bridge from Blacklion, Ireland, into Belcoo, a village in Northern Ireland. (Paulo Nunes dos Santos/The New York Times)

By Allison McCann, Milan Schreuer and Amie Tsang

With only 50 days until the deadline for Britain to leave the European Union, the political negotiations for a withdrawal agreement remain stuck — and the economic concerns are growing.

By most accounts, Britain’s economy would be hammered if it crashed out of the European Union without a deal. The gloomiest projections show that Britain would lose 9.3 percent of its gross domestic product, housing prices could sink by 30 percent and the pound could fall to $1.10 against the dollar. (The pound, seen as a barometer of confidence in Brexit, is now at about $1.29.)

But the impact would also be painful for the 27 remaining member states in the European Union. Even though the bloc is a single market, each country has a unique relationship with Britain as far as the movement of goods, services, people and capital.

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The regions most exposed to a no-deal Brexit would experience issues like disruptions in trade, costly tariffs, fragmented supply chains and restrictions on services.

In the political negotiations, the Europeans have the stronger position. But experts agree that hardly anyone wins if a withdrawal deal isn’t struck — and some countries could lose quite badly.

No More Free Trade