miércoles, 4 de mayo de 2016

MercatorNet: Cuba’s population woes

MercatorNet: Cuba’s population woes

Cuba’s population woes

Another country that is ageing and about to embark on demographic decline.
Marcus Roberts | May 4 2016 | comment 1 
According to the Miami Herald, experts meeting at Florida International University recently predicted that the population of Cuba is set to dramatically decline over the next decade. By 2025, thanks to a lack of babies and high emigration levels, the island's population will have fallen from 11 million to 10 million people, a drop of 9%! That population will also be markedly older than today's, with 30% of the population over the age of 60 in 2025, compared to 19% today. This will make the island the oldest in Latin America.
These predictions will have taken into account the official Cuban Health Statistics, the official 2015 report for which has just been released. Some of the more notable statistics are:
The total population is at the highest level ever seen in Cuba, 11,238,661 people. This is a small increase on last year and overall the population has plateaued since the year 2000.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Cuban women in 2015 was 1.72. To achieve natural population stability the rate needs to be about 2.1.
There were slightly fewer births last year than in the previous few years at 125,064. At the same time the number of deaths, 99,684, was the highest reported since 1970. The number of deaths and the mortality rate has continued to climb for the last few decades.
And what of migration? According to Erasmo Calzadilla of the Havana Times:
    The Health Statistics Report makes no mention of external migration patterns, but these can be gleaned indirectly...For 2013, the net positive migration (i.e. a value indicating that more people are immigrating than emigrating) was of some 12,000 people. In 2014 and 2015, this value again became negative, but the net value was much lower.
    This result contrasts with the migratory hemorrhage of recent years. The explanation may be that, following the migratory reform of 2013, many of those who leave the country aren’t registered as emigrants until two years later. If this is true, the external migration value will again be negative and significantly high in next year’s report.” 
Thus, it seems as if Cuba's population will continue to get older, emigrate and eventually decline from its 11.2 million peak. How the poor country deals with this state of affairs economically, and how the dictatorship in control deals with the resulting issues remains to be seen in the years ahead
- See more at: http://www.mercatornet.com/demography/view/cubas-population-woes/17987#sthash.fQKkUCBI.dpuf


Well, the people of Indiana have spoken. Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the Presidency and will face the (nearly) presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton in November's election. After months of campaigning the greatest horse race in the world is entering the final straight. The pundits are placing their bets; the crowd is roaring; the jockeys are thrashing their mounts. It will be the most interesting election in decades.
Except that an election is not a horse race. It's a deeply ethical decision for each and every one of the voters. And they have been presented with a cruel choice this year. On the one hand they have Clinton, a millionaire from the big end of town pretending to be a champion of the disadvantaged, under a cloud for dishonesty, a polished politician who has built her career on supporting abortion and gay rights. On the other hand, they have Trump, a billionaire who has never been elected to anything, a man full of vulgar narcissistic bombast, a man who supports torture, who wants to treat migrants like felons, who admires the toughness of gangsters like Vladimir Putin. He says that he is pro-life, but can he be believed? 
Is it possible for an American voter who believes in human dignity to support either of them? Or is it better to vote for an obscure third-party candidate? Or to boycott the election altogether? Whatever the answer is, voters have to examine the issues and the candidates deeply. 

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Cuba’s population woes
Marcus Roberts | DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY | 4 May 2016
Another country that is ageing and about to embark on demographic decline.
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