Trump has '91 percent' chance of winning in November, professor's prediction model says
Despite recent polls that show Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in November, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning a second term.
Despite recent polls that show Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in November, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning a second term.
Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years, Mediaite reported
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
The two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush, Mediaite noted.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
The two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush, Mediaite noted.
Norpoth's model examines presidential primary results -- not polls -- as the strongest indicator of the outcome in the general election. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.
Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the subsequent races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent.
Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."
Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, where he earned 365 electoral votes.
Other related developments:
- Nikki Haley makes the case to reelect Trump, warns 'we will lose our rule of law' if Biden wins
- Donald Trump Jr.: 'The radical left entirely controls Joe Biden' and the Democratic Party
Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, where he earned 365 electoral votes.
Other related developments:
- Nikki Haley makes the case to reelect Trump, warns 'we will lose our rule of law' if Biden wins
- Donald Trump Jr.: 'The radical left entirely controls Joe Biden' and the Democratic Party
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