Publicación: Demographic Change in South Asia: From Tailwinds to Headwinds for Development

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/8dd25385-56df-49ce-824b-31af860030ea In less than a decade, in 2034, South Asia’s working-age population share will peak and its demographic tailwinds will start to fade. Just 15 years later, in 2049, the share of people aged 65 and older will double to 14 percent, the point at which a population is considered aged rather than merely aging. This transition from an aging to an aged population is already under way and will unfold seven years faster than the average for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and two decades faster than the average for advanced economies. South Asia will complete its transition to an aged population at per capita income levels below those at which other EMDEs began similar journeys. The policy challenge now is to capture the remaining growth potential of a still-expanding working-age population while simultaneously building the institutional and fiscal capacity to manage aging. It demands front-loaded, multipronged action: faster creation of more and better jobs, stronger human capital, higher labor force participation (especially among women), expanded old-age income security, and health systems capable of supporting longer, more productive working lives.