The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts John BaffesKaltrina Temaj October 30, 2026 This page in: English

https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/the-commodity-markets-outlook-in-eight-charts4 Commodity prices are set to remain elevated, with the global index projected to rise 23 percent in 2026 before declining 7 percent in 2027. Global commodity prices are projected to increase 23 percent in 2025 before retreating 7 percent in 2027. The outlook hinges on continued supply disruptions, particularly in energy and fertilizer markets, whose price indexes are expected to rise 32 and 14 percent, respectively, in 2026 before easing in 2027. Food prices are projected to increase 10 percent in 2026 amid an intensified El Niño, disruptions to Black Sea grain supplies, higher input costs, and increased diversion to biofuels, especially biodiesel. Metals and minerals prices are expected to rise 28 percent in 2026, reflecting strong demand and limited supply growth, while precious metals prices are projected to increase nearly 40 percent. Risks are tilted to the upside and include prolonged hostilities in the Middle East, stronger-than-expected effects from El Niño, and extended disruptions to Black Sea supplies.