Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 | Executive Summary

The Middle East conflict has dealt a historic shock to energy supplies, but several other shocks are also hitting commodity markets. Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine are impeding Black Sea grain and oilseed shipments and constraining Russia’s output of oil products, notably diesel. A very strong El Niño threatens the production of agricultural commodities. In addition, supply constraints amid demand from renewables- and technology-linked investment have propelled base metals prices higher. Overall, commodity prices are projected to increase by 23 percent in 2026, to their second-highest level since 2013, led by a 32 percent jump in energy prices. As global oil production drops more than 5 percent in 2026, Brent oil prices are forecast to remain elevated in the near term, averaging $91 per barrel for the year. Oil prices would be higher still if oil demand were not set to fall 2.5 percent this year, the third-largest drop behind the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the oil crisis in 1980. Food commodity prices are on track to climb by 10 percent in 2026, well above the April forecast. Metal and minerals prices are projected to reach an all-time high. In 2027, commodity prices are forecast to decline by 7 percent, with Brent prices receding to $79 per barrel and slight reductions in other energy and metal prices, but a further 7 percent rise in food prices. Even so, 2027 price projections have mostly been revised up since April, by 14 percent for energy. The forecast hinges on a confluence of moderating factors: no major escalation of the Middle East conflict, a recovery in Russia’s oil output, easing constraints on Black Sea food shipments, and manageable crop losses from El Niño. Setbacks on these fronts could mean persistently high energy prices and stress in food markets. In an adverse scenario, oil prices would average $105 per barrel in 2027, and food prices would exceed their 2022 level. Such developments would drive global inflation higher and worsen food insecurity https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/f225ffdd-3fc9-4227-a638-171df46ce9a6/content