Like 2014, 2019 election is being contested around economy. Will the result be similar? | The Indian Express

Like 2014, 2019 election is being contested around economy. Will the result be similar? | The Indian Express

Written by Surjit S Bhalla |Updated: May 11, 2019 7:06:55 am

The writer is Contributing Editor at The Indian Express, and Consulting Editor at Network 18

Like 2014, 2019 election is being contested around economy. Will the result be similar?

Scholars have derived the conclusion that Modi was a minority winner (only 31 per cent vote), that he did not win a popular mandate, that 2014 was a Black Swan (very unusual event) election and, therefore, unlikely to be repeated again.

The centre of gravity of the big Nehru-Indira wins was around 350 seats and 42 per cent of the vote. (Illustration by C R Sasikumar)

This is a polarised election. No, this is a presidential election. Wrong, this is a caste election. In any case, it is manifestly different from the 2014 “wave” election in which Narendra Modi won 282 seats with just 31 per cent of the vote. So goes Conventional Wisdom-Delhi (hereafter CWD).