If exit polls are right, Election 2019 marks a structural change in Indian politics — the end of Congress’s dynastic rule | The Indian Express

If exit polls are right, Election 2019 marks a structural change in Indian politics — the end of Congress’s dynastic rule | The Indian Express

Written by Surjit S Bhalla |Updated: May 21, 2019 10:11:22 am

The writer is Contributing Editor at The Indian Express, and Consulting Editor at Network 18

If exit polls are right, Election 2019 marks a structural change in Indian politics — the end of Congress’s dynastic rule

The most unfortunate event to befall the Congress was that the party won three states in December 2018. This lulled them into thinking that they had a good chance of making a come back in these states, and therefore, across India.

Exit poll results at a television retail showroom in Mumbai Sunday. (Express Photo: Ganesh Shirsekar)

At the end of exit poll night, my co-panellist and political scientist/psephologist at CNN-IBN, Rahul Verma, turned to me and quipped: “Congratulations, You got the exit polls right”! By the strangest of coincidences, the election forecast (for the BJP and Congress alone) contained in my book Citizen Raj (and reproduced below), the exit polls seemed to centre around 270-280 seats for the BJP and around 50-60 seats for the Congress. My attempt (and the forecast made in February-Mach) was 274 and 57 seats respectively for the BJP and Congress.