Tories predicted to lose 500 seats in humiliating local election wipeout for Kemi Badenoch ++ Copyright © 2025 Left Foot Forward

https://leftfootforward.org/2025/04/tories-predicted-to-lose-500-seats-in-humiliating-local-election-wipeout-for-kemi-badenoch/?utm_source=Left+Foot+Forward+Newsletter&utm_campaign=e6b71aca53-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2025_04_24_12_35&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-e6b71aca53-78411619&mc_cid=e6b71aca53&mc_eid=974ea6f898 Another local election poll has the Tories set to lose big next week. Tory pollster and peer Lord Robert Hayward has forecast that the Conservatives will lose around 500 seats and 16 councils that it currently controls. Kemi Badenoch seems at a loss as to what to do, beyond managing expectations with her admission that the local elections will be "very difficult" for the Conservatives. The elections come six months after Badenoch became leader of the Tory party, with her arguing that this short time frame hasn’t been enough for the party to "make inroads". Badenoch and the Tories' favourability ratings are low - with just 18% of people viewing the leader favourably and 25% for the party according to YouGov. However, it won't all be plain sailing for Labour either, as they are expected to win around 300 seats, the same number they won at these county council elections four years ago. Perhaps the most discouraging part of Hayward's forecast is that Labour is likely to fail to take seats in areas “they should have won” in the Midlands and the North. These traditionally Labour, "Red Wall" areas are where Reform UK is expected to pick up seats. However, these are just polls—indicators of potential outcomes—and may also reflect the level of media coverage Reform UK has received, including reports of polls placing them ahead of both Labour and the Tories, as well as Nigel Farage’s repeated claims that the party will do well in these elections. One such area, where both an Electoral Calculus poll for the Telegraph and Hayward’s poll have suggested Reform could do well, and even take control of the council, is Doncaster—the only Labour-controlled council up for election on 1 May. Earlier this week, I visited Doncaster to find out how locals are planning to vote on 1 May and test the theory that Reform UK might win big in the former mining town. Keep your eyes peeled for that story next Monday. Predictions aside, Hayward's analysis of recent election results shows that of the 27 seats where Reform has contested by-elections since the start of 2025, they’ve won only four. In two by-elections in rural Essex in March, Reform was expected to do well but failed to secure any seats. Whether or not Reform achieves big gains, the left must ensure they don't continue the race to the bottom to compete with Nigel Farage's anti-immigration populism. In other news, Andrea Jenkyns, Reform UK's mayoral candidate for Lincolnshire is facing a challenge over her right to stand in the county, as she lives in Yorkshire and has said she will only move back to Lincolnshire if she wins the mayoralty. The complaint will be considered at a hearing tomorrow. Have a good evening! Olivia https://leftfootforward.org/2025/04/reform-uk-mayoral-candidate-andrea-jenkyns-faces-challenge-over-right-to-stand/?utm_source=Left+Foot+Forward+Newsletter&utm_campaign=e6b71aca53-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2025_04_24_12_35&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-e6b71aca53-78411619&mc_cid=e6b71aca53&mc_eid=974ea6f898 Copyright © 2025 Left Foot Forward