Navigating a Cloudy Outlook © 2026 The World Bank Group, This page in:English Español Русский 中文 Português العربية

https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects As the Middle East conflict drives sharp energy price increases, global growth is projected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) facing the weakest per capita income growth since the pandemic. Risks remain skewed to the downside and include escalating hostilities, further commodity market disruptions, and additional geopolitical strains, while broader AI adoption offers some upside. Policy action is critical: globally to safeguard energy and food security and advance the energy transition, and domestically to control inflation, strengthen fiscal sustainability, and support job creation. Rising debt is driving up EMDE borrowing costs, particularly for those most indebted, underscoring the need for stronger revenue mobilization and improved debt management. For commodity exporters, building fiscal resilience will also require strong institutional frameworks and revenue diversification. © 2026 The World Bank Group,