How AI and machine learning can predict and explain social risks for more effective development operations Chris MahonyVaralakshmi VemuruEvie Calcutt February 09, 2026 This page in: English Français Español العربية 中文 © 2026 The World Bank Group, All Rights Reserved.

https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/africacan/how-ai-and-machine-learning-can-predict-and-explain-social-risks-for-more-effective-development-operations At the time when the Government of South Africa approached the World Bank’s Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) Program about looking beyond natural disasters to social risks such as social violence, which costs South Africa $45.6 billion (13% of GDP) annually, we had already begun exploring this challenge. We were grappling with the complex, dynamic way in which social risks interact with public health emergencies, trade, conflict, extreme weather, and people’s perceptions of them in different places—a mix commonly referred to as polycrises. © 2026 The World Bank Group, All Rights Reserved.