History headline: Reading elections on Dalal Street | The Indian Express

History headline: Reading elections on Dalal Street | The Indian Express

Written by Nilesh Shah |Updated: March 31, 2019 3:55:42 am

The writer is managing director, Kotak AMC Ltd.

History headline: Reading elections on Dalal Street

Today, the market is pricing in a reform-oriented, stable government pivoting around one national party, and so, there will be material move on the day of the poll result if the actual result ends up being different.

In 2014, ahead of results, markets moved up in anticipation of a stable government. (Pradeep Kocharekar)

Market sentiment in the near term will be influenced by the outcome of the elections. Though the markets couldn’t predict the outcome in the 2004 and 2009 polls, they got lucky in 2014. In 2004 as well as in 2009, the unexpected outcome resulted in a significant movement in the market. Today, the market is pricing in a reform-oriented, stable government pivoting around one national party, and so, there will be material move on the day of the poll result if the actual result ends up being different.